Bsop330 week 2 master planning assignment 1 southwestern university

Forecasting Problem

Discussion Questions

1.  Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other techniques, and project attendance through 2007.

2.  What revenues are to be expected in 2006 and 2007?

3.  Discuss the school’s options.

Case Study (Southwestern University)

Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, enrolls close to 20,000 students. The school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent residents. Always a football powerhouse, SWU is usually in the top 20 in college football rankings.

Since the legendary Bo Pitterno was hired as its head coach in 1999 (in hopes of reaching the elusive number 1 ranking), attendance at the five Saturday home games each year has increased. Prior to Pitterno’s arrival, attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. Season ticket sales bumped up by 10,000 with just the announcement of the new coach’s arrival. Stephenville and SWU were ready to move to “the big time!”

The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not NCAA ranking. It was capacity. The existing SWU stadium, built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The table below indicates attendance at each game for the past six years.

One of Pitterno’s demands upon joining SWU had been a stadium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With attendance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issue head-on.

Pitterno had wanted dormitories solely for his athletes in the stadium as an additional feature of any expansion.

SWU’s president, Dr. Joel Wisner, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would “max out.” The expansion was, in his mind, a given. But Wisner needed to know how long he could wait. He also sought a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of \$30 in 2006 and a 10% increase each year in future prices.

Southwestern University Football Game Attendance, 2000-2005

2000

GAME

ATTENDEES                         OPPONENT

1       37,100                                  Baylor

2a      41,600                                 Texas

3       39,400                                  LSU

4b     25,200                                  Arkansas

5       37,100                                  USC

2001

GAME

ATTENDEES                         OPPONENT

1       36,200                                             Oklahoma

3       38,500                                  UCLA

5       37,200                                  Ohio State

2002

GAME

ATTENDEES                         OPPONENT

1       34,700                                  TCU

2a     47,800                                  Texas Tech

4b     26,400                                  Arizona

5       38,500                                  Rice

2003

GAME

ATTENDEES                         OPPONENT

1       42,700                                  Arkansas

2a     48,100                                  Missouri

3       44,600                                  Florida

4b     29,200                                  Miami

5       41,300                                  Duke

2004

GAME

ATTENDEES                         OPPONENT

1       43,600                                  Indiana

2a     49,100                                  North Texas

3       45,300                                  Texas A&M

4b     32,700                                  Southern

5       48,600                                  Oklahoma

2005

GAME

ATTENDEES                         OPPONENT

1       47,400                                  LSU

2a     51,200                                  Texas

3       46,500                                  Prairie View A&M

4b     35,200                                  Montana

5       48,700                                  Arizona State

(a) Refer to Homecoming games.

(b) During the fourth week of each season, Stephenville hosted a hugely popular Southwestern crafts festival. This event brought tens of thousands of tourists to the town, especially on weekends, and had an obvious negative impact on game attendance.

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